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Mulege Storm Watch Message- Tropical Storm Miriam

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Mulege Storm Watch Message- Tropical Storm Miriam
Weather Station of WB6EZI/XE2
Rick Barber – Owner
Oliver – Forecaster
Baja.com will be bringing periodic updates about Mulege and environs to readers from Rick Barber, Mulege resident and local expert.  Stay posted!

UPDATED 09/24/2012:  MIRIAM TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE!

Looks like MIRIAM decided to come to the Baja after all… and she’s now a Cat. 3 hurricane.  That’s the bad news… now for the good.  MIRIAM is going to peak in strength later today and then start to weaken fairly quickly and return to her Tropical Storm status sometime late Thursday or early Friday.  

By the time she hits the Baja on Saturday afternoon, she will be either a Tropical Depression or a remnant low.  Either still means rain and right now she’s heading right for somewhere between Guerrero Negro and Santa Rosalia.  Traditionally hurricanes track further to the right as time passes so I wouldn’t be surprised to see MIRIAM pass directly over Mulegé sometime on Sunday.  Now the question is how much rain is she going to dump?  It’s too early to tell folks but we’re gonna get wet and that’s fer sure.

Here’s the forecast track as of 8:00 AM this morning:

 

 

Mulege Storm Watch Message- Tropical Storm Miriam 09/23/2012

Hi All.

For some reason, I didn’t get the 8:00 AM NHC forecast so I just got it manually. We have a new Tropical Storm (MIRIAM) out in the Pacific that might get a little obnoxious. Right now, the various computer models are not in very good agreement. Some say the storm will travel out to the west and away from us but other models have it bending to the east toward the peninsula. Also, as far as strength goes, if the storm stays to the west, it will deteriorate more quickly BUT, if it keeps bending toward the Baja, it will be over warmer waters and won’t break up as quickly.

We’ll need another day or two of tracking to get a better idea of what’s going to happen. The 8:00 AM track has been “fudged” by the NHC to favor the track closer to the Baja. I think they’re just trying to put a little excitement in our lives.

Here’s the 5-day track plot:

Note that MIRIAM is forecast to become a Class 1 hurricane sometime today or tonight and then weaken to a Tropical Storm sometime Wednesday afternoon. Extrapolating the track beyond the 5-day forecast indicates that MIRIAM will be a Tropical Depression well before it hits the Baja peninsula if it decided to do that… and there is a very good possibility that it won’t. With some luck, we might get a little rain out of MIRIAM but the likelihood of us getting any significant winds is very remote.

I guess the bottom line right now is to not get excited. We have lots of time to let her figure out what she is going to do.

Have a great day,

Oliver

Mulege is a tropical paradise in Baja (but there is a reason it is so lush…did you say rain?).  Want to visit?  Check out Baja.com. 

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